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Fermi Inc. (FRMI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Pre-revenue quarter with substantial execution milestones: executed a $150M Advance in Aid of Construction (AIAC) with Tenant 1, advanced permits and site work, secured/LOI’d ~2.2 GW of gas-fired capacity, and completed a ~$785M IPO (dual-list NASDAQ/LSE) to fund Phase 1 of Project Matador .
  • Management reiterated first 1 GW of power targeted by end-2026; CFO said revenue begins in 2026 in prepared remarks, while Q&A referenced being “on plan” for revenue and income in 2027 per S-1—timeline largely maintained with a noted ~3-week slippage in the LOI-to-lease conversion process for Tenant 1, which management aims to claw back in November .
  • Q3 GAAP net loss was $346.8M (or $(0.84) per share) driven by significant non-cash items including a $173.4M donation and fair value/derivative marks; cash and equivalents were $183.0M at quarter-end (incl. $99.3M restricted) ahead of IPO proceeds in October .
  • Street consensus (S&P Global) for revenue/EPS was unavailable via our tool mapping—no formal beat/miss can be assessed; we note an analyst on the call cited “price weakness” tied to perceived delay in LOI conversion, which management framed as timing (not plan) slippage .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Commercial progress: $150M AIAC with Tenant 1, aligning cost reimbursement/prepayments and reinforcing commitment ahead of the long-term campus lease .
  • Capacity and supply-chain positioning: ~2.2 GW gas-fired generation secured/under LOI (incl. nine industrial turbines, SPS/Excel commitments, mobile TM2500s) and LOI for 1.1 GW Siemens F-class for 2026 delivery; dedicated gas (~300k MMBtu/d) and water agreements in place .
  • Permitting/regulatory: NRC accepted COL application for 4 AP1000s; TCEQ preliminarily approved 6 GW Clean Air Permit (public comment underway), enabling synchronized progression of permits and long-lead equipment .
  • Quote: “One gigawatt of gross capacity is expected to generate approximately $1.5 billion of annualized revenue and about $1 billion of net operating income” (CFO) .

What Went Wrong

  • Timing slip on LOI-to-lease conversion: Management cited roughly a three-week delay vs internal expectations (pushing December target), though emphasized plan remains intact and work is focused on resolving “the five big ones” up front .
  • Safety program behind schedule: Investor materials flag safety program status as “Behind Schedule” (while other workstreams remain on/on-ahead of schedule), indicating operational execution risk to be monitored .
  • Measurement discrepancy on TM2500 capacity: Press release cites 157.5 MW nameplate (7 units), while management commentary referenced ~135 MW of flexible capacity—implies nameplate vs expected operating contribution delta; investors should focus on operable MW and timing .

Financial Results

Income statement and cash metrics (company is pre-revenue; no prior-year public comparables):

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($)N/AN/A$0 (pre-revenue)
Net Loss ($MM)N/AN/A$(346.8)
Diluted EPS ($)N/AN/A$(0.84)
G&A ($MM)N/AN/A$37.8 (incl. $24.8 SBC)
Other Expense ($MM)N/AN/A$(309.0), incl. $173.4 donation; $(61.0) FV on Series B notes; $(50.6) embedded derivatives; $(23.7) conversion inducement
Capitalized Interest ($MM)N/AN/A$5.9

Balance sheet snapshot:

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Cash & Equivalents ($MM)N/AN/A$183.0 (incl. $99.3 restricted)
Construction in Progress ($MM)N/AN/A$270.7
Lease ROU Asset / Liability ($MM)N/AN/A$24.6 / $22.6

Operating and development KPIs:

KPIDetailSource
Gas-fired capacity secured/LOI~2.2 GW (turbines + SPS/Excel + mobile)
Siemens F-class LOI~1.1 GW for 2026 delivery
TM2500s7 units; 157.5 MW nameplate per PR; ~135 MW flexible capacity cited on call
Gas supply~300k MMBtu/d firm via Transwestern interconnect; Q1’26 service targeted
WaterUp to 2.5 MGD; option to scale to 10 MGD
PermitsNRC accepted COLA; TCEQ prelim approved 6 GW Clean Air Permit
Land99-year lease commenced; exploring +2,000 adjacent acres

Note: S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025 revenue/EPS was unavailable via our mapping; no estimate comparison presented .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance/UpdateChange
First power delivery (1 GW)2026Target late 2026 (roadshow/S-1 plan referenced) Maintained: 1 GW targeted by end-2026 Maintained
Revenue commencement2026–2027On plan for 2027 revenue/income per S-1 CFO prepared remarks: begin revenue in 2026; Q&A: “on plan” for 2027 revenue/income Mixed clarification; overall maintained trajectory
Tenant 1 lease signingDec 2025 targetEarly Dec target~3-week slip vs plan; focus on catching up in Nov Slight delay
Project finance (1st GW)2026 build~$3.0–3.3B indicated in investor slidesExpect ~$3.0–3.3B; capital stack progressing (AIAC in place) Maintained
BESS intensityPhase 1Working specs with TenantTargeting ~1 MW storage per 1 MW IT load; Tenant seeks higher intensity Upward bias (tenant-driven)
Safety program2025N/ABehind schedule; remediation in progress Behind schedule
Nuclear FEED/COL timeline2025–2026COLA under reviewHyundai FEED underway; aim FEED complete by Q2’26; COL review accepted On track

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2)Previous Mentions (Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Behind-the-meter model adoptionN/AN/ALarge tech pivoted to prefer behind-the-meter; “unequivocally happened” New/Accelerating
Supply chain and long-lead itemsN/AN/ASecured turbines; paranoid-by-design execution; protecting procured parts New/Intense focus
Permitting momentumN/AN/ANRC accepted COLA; TCEQ prelim 6 GW Clean Air Permit New/Positive
Tenant commercializationN/AN/A$150M AIAC signed; lease ~3 weeks behind plan; template benefits expected for next tenants New/Developing
Gas & water infrastructureN/AN/A300k MMBtu/d gas secured; Amarillo water 2.5→10 MGD framework New/Positive
Nuclear partnershipsN/AN/AHyundai FEED; Doosan forging readiness; intent to be “first” in U.S. nuclear renaissance New/Strategic
Political/agency supportN/AN/AU.S. agencies assisted Siemens F-class push; broader federal/state alignment New/Supportive
Site expansionN/AN/A+2,000 acres under contract; board approval pending New/Scaling

Note: Earlier quarters not publicly available; Q3 is the company’s first public earnings cycle .

Management Commentary

  • Business model economics: “One gigawatt…is expected to generate approximately $1.5 billion of annualized revenue and about $1 billion of net operating income” (CFO) .
  • Tenant 1 commitment: “The $150 million is clearly a sign of good faith and commitment…an indication they’re vested in getting that lease accomplished” (CFO) .
  • Grid strategy: “Everyone gets that the power is going to come behind the meter…Fermi sits in… the best site to produce behind-the-meter at scale” (CEO) .
  • Nuclear ambition: “We intend to be first. Period. End stop. First reactors in the United States for the nuclear renaissance” (CEO) .
  • Execution tone: “We have not slipped on our power delivery…This three-week delay on the tenant discussion is just that” (CFO) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tenant 1 lease/AIAC: $150M AIAC viewed as “promises kept” and strong commitment; lease signing slipped ~3 weeks vs target, with management prioritizing toughest issues first to accelerate closure .
  • Demand outlook and tenant pipeline: Active discussions with ~half a dozen potential tenants; customers increasingly seek larger footprints; expectation to have commitments for full 11 GW within ~2 years .
  • Supply chain risk management: Long-lead items secured; heightened focus on safeguarding procured components and coordinating multiple contractors; ongoing “paranoid” stance to mitigate risks .
  • Power mix and infrastructure: 1.1 GW F-class LOI timed for 2026; BESS intensity likely higher than initial assumptions at Tenant 1’s request; gas pipeline trenching underway; 300 mmcf/d supports ~2.2–2.5 GW .
  • Policy tailwinds: U.S. agencies aided Siemens F-class allocation; broader federal/state support referenced as helpful to “jump the line” on equipment .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025 revenue and EPS was unavailable via our data tool mapping; as such, no numeric beat/miss assessment versus Street is presented .
  • Given pre-revenue status and heavy non-cash items in Q3, we expect estimate revisions (where they exist) to focus on: (i) timing of Tenant 1 lease execution, (ii) revenue commencement 2026 vs 2027 language reconciliation, and (iii) capital intensity and BESS sizing (tenant-driven) .

Guidance Changes

(See table above for specific metrics; key directional updates)

  • Timeline: First 1 GW by end-2026 maintained; Tenant 1 lease targeted for early December with ~3-week delay acknowledged .
  • Economics: Per-gigawatt lease model reiterated ($1.5B annualized revenue, ~$1.0B NOI) .
  • Storage mix: BESS intensity likely higher than initial plan given tenant preferences .
  • Nuclear: FEED advancing with Hyundai; forging readiness with Doosan; COLA accepted by NRC .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Commercialization de-risking: The $150M AIAC materially validates Tenant 1 and should ease near-term project finance negotiations; watch for lease signing as the next catalyst .
  • Timeline steady despite admin slippage: Management aims to recover ~3 weeks on Tenant 1; power delivery targets remain intact—monitor December lease execution and early-2026 gas/water infrastructure milestones .
  • Capacity runway expanding: ~2.2 GW secured/LOI with 1.1 GW Siemens F-class slotted for 2026, plus pipeline/water/permit progress positions FRMI for first 1 GW by end-2026 and multi-GW scale-up thereafter .
  • Nuclear optionality: Hyundai/Doosan agreements and NRC acceptance provide credible baseload path; successful FEED and component procurement in 2026 could re-rate execution risk .
  • Risk monitor: Safety program flagged as behind schedule; supply chain custody/coordination and TM2500 contribution vs nameplate need continued scrutiny .
  • Stock drivers near term: (i) Tenant 1 lease signing; (ii) additional tenant LOIs; (iii) evidence of on-time long-lead deliveries/site work; (iv) clarity on 2026 revenue commencement vs 2027 wording .
  • Medium-term thesis: If FRMI executes first 1–2 GW on-time with lease economics approximating $1.5B per GW revenue and ~$1B NOI, the embedded earnings power scales rapidly—tenancy/financing cadence and capex discipline are key .

Citations:

  • Earnings call transcript: –, –
  • 8-K with Shareholder Letter/Investor Presentation: –
  • Press releases (Nov 4–10, Oct 29–30): – – – – –